September 19, 2022
predictions Pelicans vs. Suns

Game 5 New Orleans Pelicans: The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-2) head back to Footprint middle Tuesday to play the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) at 10 p.m. ET (TNT). under, we take a look at the Pelicans vs. Sun’s Pelicans vs. Suns Game 5 odds and features, and make our professional NBA selections, predictions, and bets.

NOLA evened the series with a 118-103 victory over Phoenix in Game 4 on Sunday. The Pelicans outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters and outperformed them in three of the “four factors,” with NOLA wing Brandon Ingram leading the way with 30 points.

Predictions Pelicans vs. Suns: Big Jonas Valaninas of the Pelicans exacted revenge on Suns big Deandre Ayton, who wore him out in Game 3. Valaninas outscored Ayton 26-23, outrebounded him 15-8, and attempted 9 more free throws than Ayton.

The key takeaway from Game 4 was NOLA’s defense on Suns PG Chris Paul, who had a minus-43 net rating and nearly as many turnovers (3) as points (4).

Read more: Game 5 odds, picks, and predictions for Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

Pelicans at Suns odds and lines

The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook; for a complete list. Lines were last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pelicans +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-108) | Suns -6.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Predictions Pelicans vs. Suns key injuries

Pelicans

  • PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

Suns

  • SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Game 5 Predictions New Orleans Pelicans vs.Phoenix Suns

Prediction

Pelicans 107, Suns 102

Money line

SPRINT on the PELICANS (+225) to win this game, and I’m hitting NOLA’s spread and adjusted series price of +240 even harder.

With Booker out, the Pelicans have a personnel advantage as well as a significant advantage in rebounding and free-throw attempt rates.

In that series, NOLA’s aggressive rebound rate was 16.5% higher than Phoenix, and Pelican aggressively attacked the basket, so he tried 39 more free throws than Sands.

Without CP3’s brilliance (which, to be honest, is inconsistent in the postseason), the Suns are not a good bet to win this series if they are beaten this badly in two of the “four factors.”

Since Booker’s injury, Ingram has emerged as the series’ best player. BI is averaging 29.8 points per game on 62.9 percent true shooting (.513/.500/.879), with 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and a plus-9 net rating.

However, NOLA plus the points is a much better bet, so I’d only SPRINT on the PELICANS (+225), if at all.

Against the spread

Based on the prior analysis, BET the PELICANS +6.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML, as NOLA is outscoring Phoenix by 3.3 points per 100 possessions in this series.

More importantly, the Suns are far less frightening without Booker, who is their only player capable of consistently creating his own looks in half-court sets. Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum lead the Pelicans, who are averaging 24.0 points per game in this series.

The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-107) because the betting market for the total is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario, and the Pelicans-Suns series is the third-slowest-paced series in the playoffs.

According to OKBET.com, more money is on the Under, while more bets are on the Over, and the oddsmakers are reacting to the money in the market by lowering the total from the 217-point opener.

When it comes to sports betting, it’s usually profitable to follow the money when it goes against the public because professional bettors put up more money than the average Joe.

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