September 27, 2022
Nuggets

Nuggets vs. Warriors: The Denver Nuggets (1-3) will face the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on Wednesday (3-1). The Western Conference first-round playoff Game 5 begins at 10 p.m. ET. We examine the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and lines and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets below.

In Game 4, the Warriors lost for the first time in the series, dropping the ball late in the game despite being tied. With minutes remaining, F Draymond Green fouled out, and Denver pulled away after a turnover on an out-of-bounds play.

The Warriors were one of two teams, along with Philadelphia, that we were unable to complete the series after leading 3-0. Denver won 126-121 with reigning MVP and current MVP favorite Nikola Jokic scoring 37 points.

The difference in Game 4 for the Nuggets was that three other players scored 15 points or more. If the Nuggets want to extend the series, they’ll need that help again. As a road underdog, Denver is 12-11 against the spread (ATS).

The Golden State did a great job at home this season, ending with the second-best home record. The Warriors are considered a home favorite with 22-16-2 ATS, the seventh-best coverage rate in the league.

Read more: Game 5 odds, picks, and predictions for the New Orleans Pelicans vs. the Phoenix Suns

Nuggets at Warriors odds and lines

The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook; for a complete list. Lines were last updated at 1:01 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nuggets +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Warriors -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +8.5 (-107) | Warriors -8.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Warriors key injuries

Nuggets

  • Jamal Murray (knee) out
  • Michael Porter Jr. (spine) out

Warriors

  • None

See more: Deni Avdija improves in his second NBA season, 2021-22. Wizards Player Evaluations

Nuggets at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 120, Nuggets 113

Money line

The Warriors have championship DNA and should be able to win the series, but betting on them at -475 makes little sense. Only Denver (+340) has value, but I’d still avoid it.

Against the spread

LEAN to the WARRIORS -8.5 (-115).

In the three games, the Warriors seemed to be a good team, and they were the more dominant team on the home court. Golden State scored a total of 36 points in two home games, covering both comfortably.

In Game 4, the Nuggets shot 56 percent from the field and 48 percent from deep, both of which were significantly higher than their season averages.

Given that the Warriors have the league’s second-best defense in terms of opponents’ shooting efficiency, expect the Nuggets to regress as they travel West to California.

Game 5 should feature the Warriors’ defense, which contributed to the two explosive victories, as the Nuggets led the league with a valid shot rate.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 225.5 (-110).

The Over is 4-0 in this series, and there’s little reason to believe that trend will change anytime soon.

The Warriors’ starting lineup, which includes three All-Stars, G Klay Thompson and G Jordan Poole, should see plenty of action and has a 147.8 offensive rating after 32 minutes of action this series. In the series, Golden State scored 123 and 126 points at home.

As previously stated, the Nuggets were the best shooting team during the regular season, so their efficient Game 4 came as no surprise. Denver was also the best shooting road team in the league. They’ve surpassed 105 points in every game and 110 points twice.

Expect them to play a role in assisting the over connection.

Moreover, during the regular season, these teams ranked third (Warriors) and thirteenth (Nuggets) in 3-point field goal attempts. In Game 5, they’ll both look to pour it in from deep.

Given that and the way this series has gone, I’d stick with the OVER 225.5. (-110).

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