September 19, 2022
Game 3 Warriors

Memphis Grizzlies (1-1) are playing Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinal Series against the Golden State Warriors (1-1). The game starts at 8:30 pm. ET (ABC). Examine the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and lines, and here’s what NBA experts have chosen, predicted, and bet.

The Grizzlies are one of two playoff teams with both offensive and defensive ratings in the Top 6 of the regular season (Phoenix Suns is another).

That performance was on display in Game 2 against the visiting Warriors, as PG Ja Morant scored a game-high 47 points in a 106-101 triumph. He exploited the Warriors’ “quick five” lineup entirely on his own.

The series will now be played at Chase Center, where the Warriors had the NBA’s second-best home record (31-10) during the regular season, behind only the Suns (32-9). The Dubs are much superior at home and are unlikely to shoot 7-for-38 from deep again, as they did in Game 2.

Due to a broken elbow, Golden State will be without SG Gary Payton II, who was the main defender on Morant in the opener. In the opening three minutes of Game 2, Payton was whacked from behind on a breakaway by SF Dillon Brooks. Brooks was called for a flagrant foul number two, was ejected, and has been banned for Saturday’s game.

Grizzlies at Warriors odds and lines

The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook; for a complete list. Lines were last updated Friday at 11:46 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Grizzlies +230 (bet 100 to win 230) | Warriors -300 (bet 300 to win 100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries

Grizzlies

  • SF Dillon Brooks (suspension) out

Warriors

  • Andre Iguodala (neck) out
  • SG Gary Payton II (shoulder) out

Grizzlies at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 112, Grizzlies 110

Read more: Adams and Bane: The Grizzlies are upbeat about Adams and Bane’s improvement as the series shifts to the Golden State Warriors

Money line

PASS.

The Warriors (-300) are completely overpriced. The Grizzlies (+230) are the only viable side, but given that the Warriors averaged a league-high 15 triples per game at home this season, I’d take the points (spread) instead.

Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES +6.5 (-105).

I’m not ready to declare the Grizzlies superior without Brooks, but swapping Payton II for Brooks in Game 3 Warriors bodes well for Memphis. Brooks was an important player throughout the regular season, but he is shooting only 34.8 percent from the field in the playoffs.

Couple Payton II’s absence with the fact that the Warriors haven’t found a solution for Morant, and laying 6.5 points with Golden State looks insane.

This season, the Grizzlies earned the fourth-best offensive rating and the sixth-best defensive rating. While I anticipate the Warriors to win. The Grizzlies will have C Steven Adams, who helped them lead the league in offensive rebounding rate.

When you add it all together, GRIZZLIES +6.5 (-105) to cover is my top bet. It’s unlikely that this will become a fan favorite. Pregame.com currently has 59% of the Golden State tickets.

Also see: Mavs go defensive, top Suns 103-94 for 2-1 series disadvantage

Over/Under

PASS.

Game 1 went over the total, while Game 2 didn’t come close – finishing 21 points Under the 228 O/U line.

These two teams play with an irregular tempo that tends toward the style of the Grizzlies, who were one of the NBA’s quickest teams.

Game 3 Warriors: If I had to choose a side, I’d go with the Under because I anticipate the Warriors to contain Morant, and Brooks’ desire to attempt and occasionally make tough shots would be missed.

With two top-six defenses, Under 225.5 (-110) is the safer bet, but considering Golden State’s firepower, it’s not a sure thing.

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