September 19, 2022
Game 2 Phoenix Suns

Game 2 Phoenix Suns: On Wednesday at Footprint Center, the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-0) will meet the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-1) in Game 2 of the Western Conference playoffs. The diversion is planned to begin at 10 p.m. ET (TNT). We analyze the Mavericks vs. Suns’ chances and lines and give our master NBA picks, expectations, and wagers underneath.

Game 2 Phoenix Suns fought off a late Dallas push to win 121-114 and cover as 6-point home favorites in Game 1. The Suns outrebounded the Mavericks on the boards, collecting 15 more rebounds (51-36) and dishing out 11 more assists (27-16).

All-Star for the Mavericks Luka Doncic finished with 45 points on 50.0 percent (15 of 30) shooting, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker almost had a triple-double with a stat line of 23-9-8, while Suns big man Deandre Ayton had a team-high 25 points on 60.0 percent shooting (12 of 20).

The Suns have won 7 consecutive meetings against the Mavericks going back to the start of last season, including the playoffs, and are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook for a complete list. Lines were last updated at 12:41 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet 100 to win 205) | Suns -260 (bet 260 to win 100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Mavericks

  • None

Suns

  •  None

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 101

Money line

PASS, but I think the Suns (-260) will take a 2-0 series lead against the Mavericks (+205) before traveling to Dallas.

On paper, Game 1 seemed to be a lot closer than it was, but practically the whole fourth quarter was trash time, and the Suns totally eased up. I’m leaving for Dallas.

More significantly, Dallas’ pick-and-roll (PnR) defense is a nightmare mismatch. In these playoffs, the Suns have the greatest PnR efficiency via ball handlers, while the Mavericks have the fourth-worst PnR defensive efficiency versus ball handlers.

Against the spread

BET the SUNS -6.5 (-105) because their offense produced so many easy looks in Game 1 and their defense is just too good for Dallas’ predictable attack.

The Suns would’ve beaten the Mavericks +6.5 (-120) by at least 15 points if it weren’t for Dallas PF Maxi Kleber coming off the bench to sink 5 of 8 on 3-point attempts.

In Game 1, Phoenix’s defensive approach was to let Luka play iso-ball while restricting Dallas’ role players. Luka Doncic had a 42.8 percent usage rate but a minus-6 net rating, while Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson struggled against Phoenix’s strong perimeter defense.

Furthermore, Dallas’ defense has no answer for Suns’ big man Deandre Ayton on defense, and the Mavericks cannot play Ayton off the floor as they did with Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert in the first round. Because Phoenix’s perimeter defense isn’t Swiss cheese, Dallas won’t get the same quality of shots it did against the Jazz in the previous game.

TAKE THE SUNS -6.5 (-105).

Read article: PJ Tucker targets the Bucks for their ‘disrespectful’ treatment of him.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-110) because both teams in these playoffs have a below-average pace and free-throw attempt rate, and neither team turns the ball over often, so there shouldn’t be easy points off turnovers.

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