September 19, 2022
Game 1 Miami Heat

Game 1 Miami Heat: The No. 1 seed Miami Heat will face the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference elimination rounds playoff match on Monday. The distraction begins at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Underneath, we examine the 76ers vs. Warm prospects and odds and provide our expert NBA selections, projections, and wagers.

Miami pulled off a gentleman’s clear of the No. 8 seed Atlanta Birds of prey by beating them 97-94 in Tuesday’s Amusement 5 at domestic without SF Jimmy Butler, whose Amusement 1 status for this arrangement is up within the discussion.

Philadelphia defeated the No. 6 seed Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Game 6 on Thursday. Still, they were without MVP candidate Joel Embiid, who sustained a broken orbital bone and concussion in the fourth quarter. Embiid has already been ruled out of the first and second games.

In their regular-season matchup, these teams tied 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while the total was 1-3 Over/Under (O/U).

76ers at Heat odds and lines

The odds are provided by OKBET Sportsbook for a complete list. Lines were last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): 76ers +270 (bet 100 to win 270) | Heat -360 (bet 360 to win 100)
  • Against the spread: 76ers +7.5 (-115) | Heat -7.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

76ers at Heat key injuries

76ers

  • Joel Embiid (facial fracture) out

Heat

  • SF Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
  • SG Tyler Herro (chest) questionable
  • PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
  • SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
  • SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
  • PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable

76ers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, 76ers 101

Money line

PASS.

This season, the Heat (-360) are 28-11 SU as home favorites with a plus-5.4 margin of victory, while the 76ers (-360) are 8-8 SU as away underdogs with a minus-3.0 margin.

The 76ers are without Embiid, who will be an All-NBA selection and was sixth in on/off-net rating at plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.

The Sixers defeated the Heat on March 21 as 8-point home underdogs in the second of a back-to-back while resting both SG James Harden and Embiid. In Game 1 Miami Heat, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will use what he learned from that discussion and Philly’s short-handed plan.

I wouldn’t spend -360 on any NBA ML favorite, so PASS.

Read more: Nnaji Zeke: 2021-22 Season Stats

Against the spread

Because the 76ers +7.5 (-115) depend on their guards to fill Embiid’s shoes, bet the HEAT -7.5 (-107) for 1 unit.

But, in the first round, Miami’s perimeter defense shut down another ball-dominant point guard (Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young). The Heat dominated the Hawks in ball security, and Miami has the greatest defensive turnover rate (TOV percent) in the playoffs.

In the first round, Philly’s ball security was a source of concern. In these playoffs, the Sixers rank 12th in offensive TOV percent and second-to-last in defensive TOV percent.

The Sixers’ problems will be worsened by the absence of Embiid, who simplifies the system and gives teammates open looks.

Tyrese Maxey of the 76ers is enjoying a breakthrough season, yet combinations with Maxey on the floor and Embiid off the floor scored 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions during the regular season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107).

Finally, this is a highly lucrative scenario for a Miami squad that is 15-9 ATS with a plus-3.1 ATS margin when they have a rest advantage and 3-0 with a plus-22.0 ATS margin when they have 4 or more days of rest.

Over/Under

LEAN MORE THAN 208.5 (-110) Only because this is a sharp number, both teams have raced at a slower-than-average pace and have a combined 2-9 O/U record this playoff.

However, Embiid’s absence will be felt more on defense for the Sixers, as their opponents’ effective field goal shooting increases by 11.7 percent when Embiid is not on the court, according to CTG.

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