Best Bets for Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and the Nuggets Based on a Model’s Analysis of the Teams’ Respective 72-38 Records

Bets for Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and the Nuggets Based on a Model's Analysis of the Teams

As of Wednesday night’s Game 3, the 2023 NBA Finals are moving to a new location. After playing the first two games at Denver’s Ball Arena, the Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets at their home court, the Kaseya Center. After the Heat’s dramatic comeback win in Game 2 on Sunday, the series is level at 1-1. The Heat won 111-108 on the strength of a 36-point final frame, giving them the upper hand in the series.

The game begins in Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET. The current Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook have Denver as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under, or Vegas’ prediction of the total number of points scored, set at 214.5. Check out SportsLine’s cutting-edge computer model’s verdict on the Nuggets vs. Heat before committing to any NBA picks or predictions.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and over the past four and a half seasons, it has produced well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks. The model had an incredible 72-38 record on all top-rated NBA picks this season, for a return of about $3,000 heading into the 2023 NBA Finals. Anyone who has followed it has made significant gains.

The model is now focused on the Heat and the Nuggets and has recently finalized its predictions for the NBA Finals. To view the model’s predictions, visit SportsLine right now. NBA betting lines and trends for the Nuggets vs. Heat matchup are as follows:

  • Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -2.5
  • Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 214.5 points
  • Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -145, Heat +122
  • Denver: The Nuggets are 23-25 against the spread in road games
  • Miami: The Heat are 21-28-2 against the spread in home games
  • Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Best Bets for Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and the Nuggets

The Reason the Nuggets can go over

Nikola Jokic, Denver’s star, is the best player in this matchup. It had been since 2001 that a center had scored more points than Jokic did in Game 2 of the NBA Finals (41). In the playoffs, he is averaging 30.4 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game, giving him the most triple-doubles in a single playoff run and making him the only player in NBA history to average a triple-double through 17 playoff games. During the regular season, he was a top-three rebounder and assister and led the NBA with a 70.1% true shooting percentage, but he still finished second in the NBA MVP voting. 

Denver boasts a real No. 2 star in Jamal Murray, and the Nuggets outscored their opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court during the regular season. In the playoffs, he is averaging 27.0 points and 6.6 assists per game for Denver, who has the best offense of any playoff team. During the 2023 NBA playoffs, the Nuggets have the highest offensive rating, turnover rate, true shooting percentage, and points in the paint. Find out which squad to back in this article.

Why can the Heat cover

The entire postseason has been a testament to Miami’s resiliency. The Heat have more underdog playoff victories (10) than any other NBA club in the last 30 postseasons. More than any other club in the postseason’s play-by-play era, Miami had seven comeback victories after trailing by at least 12 points. The Heat scored 36 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and played nearly faultless basketball in the final minutes. With six players making at least two 3-pointers, Miami tied an NBA Finals record with 1.29 points per possession in Game 2. 

The Heat won because they made 17 of 35 3-point tries, had 28 assists, and committed only 11 turnovers. The Miami Heat are tough to beat when they are on a roll from outside the arc (24.1 assists per game compared to 12.1 turnovers). Overall in the playoffs, Miami is shooting 39.2% from deep, with over 46% coming in nine wins against the Bucks, Celtics, and Nuggets. Find out which squad to back in this article.

Tips for picking the Nuggets and the Heat

The Over is the pick of SportsLine’s model, which predicts a total score of 223. The model also predicts that, more often than not, you may make money by trading on only one side of a spread. The model’s NBA playoff predictions are exclusive to SportsLine.

Who will triumph between the Heat and the Nuggets, and whose side of the spread will more often than not come through? Find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you should be on by visiting SportsLine right now to get the advice of a model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.

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